Vladimir Putin will be remembered always as the architect of the Modern Russia and the True Leader of it's people. From the misery and destruction of the 90s, Russia under Putin has once again re-emerged as the true World Super Power. Despite all his successes, his handling of the relationship with West has been quite naive. It seems Russia especially under Putin has been operating under a lot of assumptions which honestly is based on fantasy rather than realism for most of it's part.
We have the likes of Stephen Cohen and Paul Craig Roberts, two renowned Russia matter experts constantly reminding us about this disparity between the wish and reality. May be Paul Craig Roberts may seem a bit more outspoken with his views on 'How America treats Russia and How Russia should respond'! But his basic premise of argument has been constantly proven right as we are seeing in the continuous deterioration of Russia - US relationship.
Russian and US relationship has been in such bad state that it makes many wonder how we still haven't had a direct conflict. Especially considering the arena where they are operating - Ukraine and Syria; it's just one spark that is needed for these two super powers to go full throttle against each other. Many pundits have credited Putin for the restrain he has shown despite the numerous provocations.
Vladmir Putin indeed is the only reason why we haven't yet had started a war between NATO and Russia. Every time he was called upon to make a decision, he has acted as a true statesman and did everything to avoid a direct confrontation with America. He did not react directly when the Russian jet was shot down by CIA backed Turkish Military nor he reacted when a number of Russians mercenaries where killed by American air strike. And that episode keeps on continuing - it is reported that he was the one who is blocking the sale of S-300 missile defense system to Syria.
But is Putin's restrained approach making the World Safer or More Dangerous?
One thing is becoming more or less clear is that with every inaction by Putin, the West led by America is becoming more and more reckless. Look at the way France is responding now after seeing the missile strike on Syria failing to invoke any Russian response. They are now talking of more air strikes against Syria. In fact it has been the same pattern since the end of Cold War 1.0. Russia kept it's silence in all issues starting from Yugoslavia to Libya and instead of making the World safer it had made it more dangerous. Without any check, Americans are marauding all over the World and eliminating every regime which does not bow down to it. And Russia cannot run away from the responsibilities of the same.
Russia's approach to a better relationship with West is based on a series of myths. And Russia needs to tackle those in order to get some sense driven into the Americans. Currently Russians play naive in their approach to Americans until that is changed, the World will remain ;One Spark Away from Nuclear Armageddon'. So what are those myths!
Myth #1 - United States and Russia can be Friends
This is the biggest of all the foolish ideas Russian leaders have about their relationship with America. Simply put it's not going to happen. It may happen, may be after a nuclear World War 3; if there is anything left of this World! Other than that there is absolutely no chance. Americans usually try to sell this idea to Russian public; but what they are offering Russia is not Friendship but a chance to be 'America's next Vassal State'.
Many were out-raged by the "We will Slap Russia when we Feel So" comment by Nikki Haley at the UN. You could argue that her statement were something unacceptable in diplomatic circle. In reality, she just openly stated hidden and official American policy. America and Russia cannot be friends! The truth is that simple. American administration belive in the Unipolar World they dictate terms to everyone else. Russia is the only obstacle they have for it. In the 90s they tried capturing Russia by getting their man, Yelstin in power. But Putin reversed the course.
Many American commentators blame Putin for the sad state of affairs now. They believe once he is gone, there would be better relationship between America and West. That's far from truth. What they are expecting is once Putin is gone, they can install Yeltsin-2. It's not Putin the problem, a resurgent Russia is the problem. Once Russia agrees to be a Vassal state of America, the relationship will improve. But is Russia ready for that?
Myth #2 - The Threat of MAD is a Effective Deterrent
Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) was the only factor which held the two cold war powers at arms distance during the Cold War 1. People assume the same reality still holds especially Russians! It's another false presumption. Russia still have the nukes and delivery system as earlier like Soviet Union. But there has been a stark change from those times also and that's the major factor.
Courage stands halfway between cowardice and rashness, one of which is a lack, the other an excess of courage. Plutarch
There are two components of MAD - one having the Nuclear Arsenal to destroy your enemy and second having the courage to actually press the button. It's actually the second factor which matters the most. For example look what North Korean leader achieved by the second alone. There was no guarantee whether his Missiles will reach Japan, South Korea or Hawaii. But the fact that 'Kim won't hesitate to Launch' made those doubts secondary. And he earned a Peace process due to that.
During the cold war there was a mutual belief that the other side will go nuclear if their security is threatened. That fear have completely evaporated from the Americans and the West. That is the main reason that even with advanced weapons and delivery system, Russia's security concerns fall to deaf ears. Unless Russia indicates a resolve to retaliate, West will keep pushing the boundaries.
Myth #3 - Syria, Iran and Ukraine are not Russia's Wars
This is another view which is foolishly held by Putin and his team. They believe that Russia should not get caught up in these wars and should try to exit from it at the earliest. Little they remember that the final target for the Neocons is always Russia and in Syria and Iran America is actually cutting down any potential allies of Russia. Russia is getting surrounded day by day by NATO and it is foolish not to link these conflicts to Syria and Iran.
If they are ready to be assertive Russia could tilt the entire table in a flash. Half of the issues can be solved if Russia take a different stance against Israel. If Russian Parliament and Government recognizes Hezbollah as legitimate fighting force and start supplying them with arms needed; half of Russia's issue will be solved. Israel will not want that to happen and will make sure through APAC to end the conflict and may be the sanctions.
That may work well in Middle-East, but in Europe Russia may have to take a much bigger step or at least threat. One way is to get rid of the 'No First Use' policy regarding Nuclear Weapon and pass a bill which will give pre-authorization to military to target neighboring countries which host NATO base with Nuclear Weapon if any threat is detected. One the decision to launch nukes against countries like Poland etc is taken out of hands of Political readers and given to Military leader; there will be serious negotiations.
In any case, Russia cannot continue with this 'Wait and Watch' approach. They need to react otherwise, the Neocons' arrogance gets strengthened everyday. And that will result in finally a day when they will attack Russia directly on a belief that Putin may not retaliate due to threat of MAD. But Putin will react then and we may have to say good by to the World. To avoid that Russia needs to draw it's red line sooner than later.
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