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How Long Before the Cold War 2.0 turns Hot?

How Long Before the Cold War 2.0 turns Hot?

Middle East Affairs are getting more murkier day by day! It's extremely hard to predict the next turn of event but it's safe to assume that whatever happens it won't be for the good! And at the epicenter of all there lies Syria. US and it's allies never ever imagined that the turn of events in Syria would go completely in the opposite direction as they hope. It was never in consideration when they made the decision to destroy a Country, which going by History defines the entire middle-east's future. As usual the US and it's allies refuses to learn their lessons; engaging in yet another series of missteps; oblivious to the fact that the World is racing to yet another World War.

If you use weapons of war to bring about peace, you're going to have more War and Destruction. Coretta Scott King

The last two weeks has been the most crucial in defining the way the Middle East crisis would shape up. The two events which were not covered properly in the Western Media had the potential to start something which would pull all of the World into 'The Final Act'. First it was the Syrian Forces shooting down the Israeli F-16. That event literally shocked everyone, including the pro-Syrian analyst. Israel has been carrying out attacks in Syria with impunity and Syrian forces never actually returned fire. Every time Israeli supported militia's are under attack in Golan Heights, Israel usually responds to air strikes on key Damascus military installations.

Air Strikes are Clear Signal to Israel from Syria and Russia

It was widely reported that these attacks kind of have the blessing of Putin and there is a tactical understanding between Israel and Russia to allow these strikes whenever events threaten Israel's interest. So what changed? It is very difficult to contemplate that Syrian Government may have taken this decision without Russia's approval. The immediate response from Putin, who called Netanyahu to warn him about escalating the situation clearly shows that it was a message from Kremlin and Damascus. It was a public statement of the importance of everyone exercising restrain; it was a private, clear message!

To an extent, we can assume that Israel got the message. After the initial reaction there was a quiet period but thing are getting interesting agains. Recently there were reports of a Israeli Drone being targeted by Syrian air defense systems. It was a clear attemp by Israel to gauge the response from Syria! But even then it's quite clear to Israel that the free run they had so far has ended and they may need to change the tactics to save the face. Israel's attempt to convert this into a Iran-Israel fight has not yet materialize but then we may have to seriously watch the area to see how this is going to evolve.

How many Russian Died in US Strikes?

The second news for me was of much more significance and may have quite a spiralling effect if it goes out of control; and it easily could! Last week Western media was full of news of Russian causalities at the hands of United States. The reports from Western Media put the number of Russian causalities at a number which is in excess of 100. The Russian Government has confirmed the causalities but they say only five Russians were killed; interestingly enough they don't confirm whether these causalities were of Russian Soldiers or Private mercenaries.

Add to this the earlier episode of Syrian Rebels downing a SU-25 bomber plane using what is assumed a US supplied Stinger missile. The Russians have already hinted that these were done either at the command of US forces or at least with the tactical understanding of US Forces. As Saker, put in his recent article - this proves that US is umping the ante against Russia in Syria. It's not clear whether these entire operations are carried out with the blessing of US President, Donald Trump. It's long been suspected that Trump doesn't control the US Armed forces; who are more loyal to Hilary than Trump at the moment.

Putin's Silence is emboldening Americans

One may wonder why US is going on a path which will be absolutely devastating in the long run? The answer could be two folded - one is the attempt to hide the defeat they have suffered in Syria. Despite Trump's rambling, everyone recognizes the real victors in Syria as the Assad Government, Iran, Russia and Hezbollah. These acts are a desperate attempt to reduce the Russians sense of victory! But even then the only reason why these kind of actions are taken is because in the ruling circles there is a clear understanding that whatever US do, Putin will remain silent.

And there has been enough encouragement for US to do that. From the episode of Turkey shooting down Russian plane to the latest attack on Russians, Putin maintained his silence and failed to defend Russia's interest. He is more or less worried about the impact of his retribution and the possibility of a World War being started. That strategy is emboldening the Americans and they are becoming more and more bolder in taking steps to hurt the Russians. Putin is trying to reason to a country who never listens, never understands and only understand the language of force. But for some reason Putin remains silent watching the carnage Americans spread to his own forces and his allies forces.

When the Israeli F-16 was shot down, everyone assumed Putin may had enough. But the conscious silence on the 'Attack on Russians' give a completely different picture. Especially when many who had to suffer losses of their loved ones are asking for the Government to acknowledge the incident. Putin's patience has helped him in the long run in Syria up to now, with Turkey suddenly becoming the ally and de-conflicting everything with Israel even at the expense of Syrians. But it seems there is a limit of what he could achieve with his patience.

With Putin up for re-election, these kind of incidents will increase in numbers based solely on a foolish assumption of Putin being handcuffed in taking any action in the build up to the Presidential elections. But there is no signs of these things affecting his popularity, instead he could go the American way and up the ante and get the nation completely involved. More the attack on Russian personals, it would become much more easier for him to sell the War at home.

But will Putin react to a series of misadventures directed at his country? That's the big question and going by Putin's past actions, the chances are very less. For some reason he still harbors hope for a good relationship between West and Russia. That never going to happen as long as the military industrial complex is in change in America. For them Russia is the perfect target to sell all weapons and increase military spending.

It is to be seen how long the Russians will remain silent in the face of all these provocations. It's just a matter of time before Russians loses their patience. If Americans think that sending Russians in body bag helps in getting Putin defeated, the end result could be completely different. If causalities continues to rise, Putin will be blamed not for the causalities but for not standing against American aggression. And if time comes to that, Putin have no other option but to respond in kind. And then it all Starts!

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